U.S. consumer cash use, 2012–2015: an introduction to the diary of consumer payment choice

U.S. consumer cash use, 2012–2015: an introduction to the diary of consumer payment choice

Scott Schuh, Claire Greene and Shaun O’Brien

Conference paper

International Cash Conference 2017: The War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash?

2017

U.S. consumer cash payments averaged 26 percent by number (volume share) from 2008-2015, according the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC), and essentially flat from 2012 to 2015. In contrast, new estimates from the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (DCPC) suggest that the volume share of consumer cash payments is higher than estimated in the SCPC, as expected, but 8 percentage points lower in 2015 than in 2012. Unfortunately, the DCPC most likely does not provide an accurate estimate of the actual changes in cash payments due to major changes in survey methodology between 2012 and 2015. Furthermore, improvements in economic conditions during this period may have influenced the estimates in ways that do not reflect longer run trends. Counterfactual simulations that control for survey and economic changes suggest the cash volume share declined about 1 to 3 percentage points due to changes in consumer preferences during this period, closer to the SCPC estimate. The DCPC estimates also indicate that the dollar-value share of cash payments was flat.