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Competing Narratives in Action: An Empirical Analysis of Model Adoption Dynamics

General Information

Title
Competing Narratives in Action: An Empirical Analysis of Model Adoption Dynamics
Author
Marco Angrisani, Anya Samek, Ricardo Serrano-Padial
Publication Type
Working paper
Outlet
Year
2023
Abstract
We use a longitudinal dataset measuring beliefs and behaviors to study the dynamics of model – or narrative – adoption during the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that individuals switch beliefs about the effectiveness of preventive behaviors following changes in perceived risk. The adoption of models promoting preventive behaviors is procyclical and model switching is influenced by exposure to conflicting information. We explain the data using a heterogeneous-agent model of competing narratives in which agents exhibit motivated beliefs. Adopting misspecified models increases infection rates, highlighting the importance of promoting accurate beliefs to guide behavior in the presence of novel risks.