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Competing Narratives in Action: An Empirical Analysis of Model Adoption Dynamics
General Information
Title
Competing Narratives in Action: An Empirical Analysis of Model Adoption Dynamics
Author
Marco Angrisani, Anya Samek, Ricardo Serrano-Padial
Publication Type
Working paper
Outlet
Year
2023
Abstract
We use a longitudinal dataset measuring beliefs and behaviors to study the
dynamics of model – or narrative – adoption during the Covid-19 pandemic. We
show that individuals switch beliefs about the effectiveness of preventive behaviors
following changes in perceived risk. The adoption of models promoting preventive
behaviors is procyclical and model switching is influenced by exposure to conflicting
information. We explain the data using a heterogeneous-agent model of competing
narratives in which agents exhibit motivated beliefs. Adopting misspecified models
increases infection rates, highlighting the importance of promoting accurate beliefs
to guide behavior in the presence of novel risks.