Habituation to threats in times of crisis: Lessons from the temporal trajectory of risk perceptions throughout COVID-19

Habituation to threats in times of crisis: Lessons from the temporal trajectory of risk perceptions throughout COVID-19

Tito L.H. Grillo, Ty Henderson, Adrian F. Ward

Working paper

2023

From epidemics to wars to economic recessions, societies all around the world are subject to extended periods of crisis. Understanding public perceptions of crisis-related risks is crucial for educating people about ongoing threats and protective behaviors and developing effective protective policies during crises. However, little is known about how risk perceptions change over time. During COVID-19, for more than a year, participants of a nationwide American panel provided periodic reports of their own estimated (i.e., perceived) probabilities that they could (i) get COVID-19, (ii) be hospitalized with COVID-19, and (iii) die of COVID-19. Examining these reports of subjective risks—and controlling for objective indicators of COVID- 19 threats—we found robust habituation-to-threats patterns: although respondents perceived high levels of personal risk during the early days of the pandemic, risk perceptions declined over time despite rises in objective threat indicators. In fact, the passage of time was a substantially stronger predictor of risk perceptions than objective signs that COVID-19 was becoming more dangerous. This temporal trajectory of risk perceptions could help explain fluctuations in protective behaviors throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and may have implications for managing other widespread crises in the future.