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suplife

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Variable Question text Label
sins001_randomizerRandomizer life insurance market decreaserandomizer life insurance market decrease
sins002Suppose that you own a life insurance policy that promises to pay $^fL_amount_life to your estate.

Suppose that the stock market decreases by ^sins001_randomizer next year.

We are now interested in the percent chance that during this next year the life insurance becomes worthless due to no fault of your own. This means that the life insurance will never make any payment. This might occur if the insurance company goes out of business, they claim you violated a clause in the contract, or they ruled the policy void for some other reason.

What is the percent chance this occurs?
chance never life insurance payment
sins003We would now like to focus on what might happen just during the next calendar year.

Suppose that you were to die during the next calendar year.

You have been given 20 balls to put in the following bins. Each bin describes a scenario that involves the life insurance payment that you are supposed to get next year. The more likely you think a bin is, the more balls you should put in that bin.

If the stock market decreases by ^sins001_randomizer next year, what do you think will happen to the life insurance payment?
probability life insurance payment
sins004You put ^sup_life_balls[2] ball(s) in the bin marked "My estate will receive a payment less than they are supposed to receive." Please provide more detail on what you believe is likely to happen in this event by distributing those balls in the following bins. The more likely you think a bin is, the more balls you should put in that bin.

If the stock market decreases by ^sins001_randomizer next year and your estate does receive a payment that is less than you are supposed to receive, how much do you think you would get?
less expected distribution supplemental life insurance
sup_life_ballslife insurance decrease probability distribution
sup_life_bars